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After having spent the better part of an evening touring friends and family to get their DSL and cable lines back up running I once more noticed two striking advantages of wireless broadband versus the fixed line competition:

• Installation cost: For wireless broadband you go to the next supermarket (in some countries) and buy a bundled SIM card and USB/PCMCIA HSDPA modem. The software is pretty much self installing and you are up and running in 10 minutes. Compare that to the 10 months waiting time of a friend of mine for a cable connection and the 3 hour installation time with 4 technicians retrofitting the cable infrastructure in the apartment building. Also, compare that to the DSL nightmare in many countries when you want to switch from one DSL provider to another. I know few people who managed to get that done seamlessly and far to many who sat on the dry for weeks and weeks before their DSL link started working again.

• Troubleshooting: If there is a problem on the last mile on your DSL and cable link it’s likely that you are the only one that is impacted. Have fun convincing the customer hotline that it’s not your PC or modem that is acting up. If there is a problem with the base station in a wireless network, however, 1000 people will be impacted, red lights will start flashing in the network operation center and emergency repair operations will kick in within a couple of minutes.

I leave it to you to draw the conclusions.

I came across this YouTube video today where Vivian Reding, EU commissioner for information society and media, speaks about the Internet, broadband penetration, competition and freedom of information. In the video she says that broadband Internet access works best in countries that have lot of competition in the market and that she works hard to open up markets and foster competition. Hear hear! I wished the EU would push equally hard for competition in wireless broadband Internet access and mention some of the black sheep 🙂

Lots of problems these days in Kenya, but here’s a bit of a hopeful story: A friend made me aware of M-Pesa a couple of days ago, a new mobile payment system in Kenya. It seems that a a lot of people in this country do not have a banking account due to the high costs. M-Pesa fills the gap with a mobile bank account which is free of charge. Transactions, for which a service fee is charged, are performed via SMS which are sent by a little application which sits on the SIM card. The technology behind it is called SIM Application Toolkit (SAT). As SAT is a 3GPP standard the application can be used with any mobile phone. Money can be sent to M-Pesa  customers and also to non members. Additionally, the application can also be used to top-up somebody else’s prepaid account. According to the M-Pesa entry in the German Wikipedia, the service launched by Safaricom and Vodafone at the beginning of 2007 is already used by 20% of their subscribers.

Now it’s official! The Mobile Monday Global Peer Awards will be held during the 3GSMWorldCongress, aka the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on Monday, February 11th in the afternoon at the Espacio Movistar. It was a great event last year thanks to the great organization of Rudy de Waele and I am sure he will be able to top himself this year. You can also find the event on the 3GSMEvents Wiki together with other exciting happenings. Registration is required via the event page linked above. See you there!

Later this year will see the auction of bandwidth in the 7000 MHz band in the U.S. for wireless Internet services. Apart from incumbents such as AT&T and Verizon, who are likely to bid in order to secure their interests and current business model, there are at least two interesting names on the bidder list which could have a disruptive effect on the mobile landscape if they manage to get a good portion of the spectrum. Apart from Google who has lobbied hard for open wireless networks there is also Vulcan Ventures that belongs to Paul Allen, co-founder of Microsoft. I guess his pocket’s are deep enough to do it. From what I read about him he looks like a visonary so I can very well imagine that he could be a disruptive force as well. What do you think?

The more I think about it the more I am convinced that voice service will make or break LTE in the mid-term. While most industry observers agree that the first devices for LTE are likely to be USB dongles and PC cards the real LTE story only starts once the technology makes it into mobile Internet devices and handsets.

While on mobile Internet devices it might be acceptable to have Skype or some other VoIP technology, smaller handsets who’s main purpose is voice service might have a much more difficult time with VoIP. Such devices must also be capable of roaming to 2G and 3G networks when running out of LTE coverage. Especially in 2G networks, VoIP is a no go so voice service must fall back to good old circuit switched telephony. So apart from the question of how VoIP will be done on LTE handsets the much bigger question is how to make the experience seamless over 2G, 3G and LTE.

Sure, there is Voice Call Continuity and the IMS can be configured to forward an incoming call via a circuit switched connection when no suitable wireless IP network is available. However, from what I can see so far it seems that achieving this is much more difficult then rolling out LTE in the first place.

Another alternative would be for a LTE handset to be simultaneously attached to a LTE network for data and a 2G or 3G network for circuit switched voice. This way the telephony application on the handset could be simple. Not sure if that will work in practice though!?

Ideas?

Ever since I started thinking about mobile one of my favorite train of thoughs has been how to check how things are going at home from the mobile device, get the coffee machine going before I come home or to check if the lights are out. It’s no longer speculation now, it’s been done! Check out bwired.nl. Not sure who’s behind this project but the guy has wired is house top to bottom, webcams everywhere, gas and power meter cabled, phone system, GPS enabled PDA shows his location when he’s outside, etc. etc. And on top he has a mobile web site to check things out with the mobile phone. Via SMS or voice server, lights and other things can be controlled remotely. The website shows power, gas, water consumption, streaming videos from the camera, etc. etc. etc. in realtime. Cool stuff. Envy creeping up here…

Lots of blogs with web 2.0 and mobile web 2.0 predictions for 2008. But what’s happening in the telco space and how is it influenced by web 2.0 and mobile web 2.0? The Telco 2.0 blog features a number of interesting predictions for 2008. Some time is required for reading the whole thing but if you work in telecoms it’s a must read.

Some things that ring back here:

• "Investors are following the wrong KPI’s": Yup, ARPU is definitely a thing of the past.

• "New networks don’t need old revenue models.": Yup, let’s see how disruptive WiMAX can be.

• "‘wholesale’ and ‘sexy’ mysteriously get conjoined": Yup, from bit pipe to long tail enabler.

• "Voice gets absorbed by the Internet borg" : Yup, 95% of my calls are either pure VoIP or at least contain a "non-telco" VoIP leg to make it cheaper. Mass market is very close.

• "Emerging market voice and messaging isn’t just cheap and cheerful, but dangerously different": Yup, operators will struggle to replicate their voice success of Telco 1.0 in the new world order once IMS makes it out of the lab.

Great! Rudy de Waele of m-trends has announced the first 3GSM / Mobile World Congress side event: Mobile Sunday Barcelona. Definitely not to miss if you are already in Barcelona on the Sunday before the congress starts. More details on the Mobile Sunday Wiki. I’ve also linked it on the general 3GSM / MWC side event Wiki.

Most high end mobile devices these days seem to be equipped with some sort of ARM processor. They are fast, cheap, power optimized and highly embedded. These days, however, the status quo seems to be challenged by Intel who tries to establish the x86 design in the mobile world with their Mobile Internet Devices (MID) initiative. This could have a number of interesting consequences:

• It looks like Intel is betting on Linux as an OS for those devices and not on their traditional relationship with Microsoft. I guess their main reasons are that Windows Mobile requires an ARM platform while Linux happily runs on pretty much everything, including ARM and x86.

• Linux is a lot cheaper to use (no royalties) and can be easily extended inhouse without having to ask anyone.

• Linux has a large developer community. A lot of software already written for Linux (without a GUI) needs no or only small changes to run on x86 based mobile devices. Software does not even have to be cross-compiled as would be the case for devices using an ARM processor.

• Using XP or Windows Vista for a Mobile Internet Device seems to be out of the question due to the huge amount of processor and memory requirements.

So where does this leave Microsoft? With Visa and XP too big and Windows mobile to closed / too limited / too expensive they have a gapping void in their product portfolio. Also, they do not build and sell their own mobile devices but leave it to third party companies such as HTC to develop devices using their OS.  I would not be surprised if many of them can’t wait for Google’s Android. Tough times ahead for Microsoft in mobile…