The Mobilized Internet and the Mainstream

This week, the winning post of ‘krisse’ in the Carnival of the Mobilists has spawned some interesting thoughts over here. In the post, ‘krisse’ reports about entry level phones such as the Nokia 5000, which are around 100 euros without a contract, now come with OperaMini pre-installed. With a screen resolution of 320×240 pixels, the viewing experience is as good as with much more expensive feature phones. He didn’t say anything about how fast the browser runs on the phone but I assume processors have become fast enough even on S40 phones for the purpose.

So while Nseries devices and the iPhone might push the mobilized Internet revolution from the top, they won’t bring the real breakthrough as they are too expensive for a broad audience. But with phones for 100 euros now supporting feature rich mobile web browsers, that’s a different thing entirely. I would say that such phones are used by the majority of people in Europe, North America and many Asian countries.

From a hardware price point of view, mobile Internet access for the masses is now possible. Problem solved. From a software point of view, Opera Mini and other browsers have also reached a level of maturity that make them mass market usable. Hardware and software, however, is not all that it takes. In addition, I think the following things need to be put in place:

  • Prepaid data plans, either ‘fair use’ or a reasonable price per megabyte. Such plans are in place now in many countries now, but one can argue about the many ‘if’s, ‘buts’ and ‘must nots’ though. If marketed well and if they are simple enough to understand without a law and computer science degree, such offers should reduce the fear of only knowing one month later what mobile browsing sessions have cost.
  • Training of sales people: Absolutely essential! The average normob (normal mobile user) doesn’t want to figure it out himself. Currently, most sales people in shops are just clueless. This has to change.
  • Autoconfiguration / Pre-configuration: Devices must work out of the box, normob’s don’t configure anything. Again, a chance for operators to stay valuable in the value chain. 
  • Advertise compelling services: Also, good progress seen here nowadays with Vodafone and others advertising Facebook, Google and eBay on mobile devices.

Any other requirements I have missed for mass market mobilization of the Internet?

Online with an AT&T Prepaid SIM

Att sim
I've arrived in Florida and since I will stay for a couple of days I went to the AT&T store around the corner to get a prepaid SIM for mobile Internet access. Good timing on AT&T's side since they introduced an unlimited mobile Internet access package for $19.99 per month just a couple of weeks ago.

The process of getting a SIM only took a couple of minutes, they didn't even want to see an ID. Interesting, others report an ID and a social security number are necessary. Maybe an individual state/store decision. Anyway, activating the Unlimited MediaNet Internet access package also only takes a couple of minutes and the details can be found here.

I checked web browsing via OperaMini, eMail (POP3/SMTP), Shozu and A-GPS, all work well with my N95-2. Some sources report notebook access via the phone is possible, too, but I haven't tried that yet. A more detailed report will follow 🙂

What a difference to my trip last year where I had to hop from Wi-Fi to Wi-Fi hotspot to stay connected.

Is the 3UK Network Hopelessly Underdimensioned?

I arrived in London yesterday and as I already have a prepaid SIM from 3UK, I used it for Internet access. Interestingly, just like in the Italy roaming scenario with the same SIM, data rates in the evening around London Victoria station were less than 300 kbit/s. A rather unpleasant experience as web pages were loaded very slowly. So it looks like this is not only a roaming issue but the 3UK network as a whole seems to be currently aching under the load. If this is an issue on the cell level or if it is the core network equipment that is stretched beyond its limits in the evening hours is hard to tell from the outside. This morning, data rates are fine again, exceeding 1 MBit/s at the same location, i.e. also the same behavior as in the roaming scenario in Italy. I travel a lot and thus use lots of other 3.5G networks in Europe and I have never seen such a bad throughput anywhere before. Time to do something about it quickly before customers (including me) consider other options.

Mobile To Displace Fixed-Line Internet Within Two Years

A pretty powerful title for this post, taken from a recent article in the U.K.'s Times online. In this article, the author is speculating about what falling prices for mobile Internet access means for the U.K.'s broadband market as a whole. He says there is a growing trend that people, especially singles, prefer to go online wirelessly instead of via a fixed line DSL or cable connection at home they can only use there. I pretty much agree with the article as in other countries that are even further ahead with broadband wireless this can already be seen. As I've reported here, more than a third of Austria's broadband connections are already wireless and the number is still rising with 57% of all new broadband connections being wireless now. Incredible numbers! I am sure offers like 3's 1GB for 10 pounds a month on a prepaid SIM help as well.

AT&T Starts Prepaid Internet Access For Mobile Devices

Great move from AT&T in the US to be the first GSM  / UMTS carrier in the region to start a small screen Internet access offer on prepaid SIMs. For $19.99, the ‘MediaNet Unlimited’ offer is not the cheapest I have seen, but definitely a good start! Can’t wait to try it out next month when I come to Orlando to speak at a Tech Conference. For the technical details take a look here at the Prepaid Wireless Internet Wiki.

Thanks to phonenews and Matthew Stevens, who’s blogging over at DarlaMack, for pointing me to it!

Getting Internet Access with ‘3’ in the U.K.

Three_purchase
I arrived in the U.K. yesterday for attending the Oxford University Future Technology Conference in Oxford today. Naturally, wireless Internet connectivity needed to be assured right away, so I figured I would go and buy a ‘3’ Pay As You Go SIM and activate the 1 GB for 30 days broadband Internet access offer (for details, see here). I managed to get one in the end, as this blog entry is proof of, but it was a bit easier said than done:

The first ‘3’ store I found did not have prepaid SIMs without phones available, out of stock… O.k. no worries, there is more than one ‘3’ store in London. So I went to a second store which did have SIM cards but there I was told that the Internet would only work with their own phones. I challenged the guy, he gave me his SIM card and I showed how well it works in my non-‘3’ N95-8GB 🙂 Not that he knew what an ‘APN’ was…

After the initial denial phase, everything worked like a charm and I was set up in 5 minutes:

  • Within a minute, I had a SIM card and a 10 pounds top up voucher and activated the SIM by calling 444.
  • Before activating the Internet add-on, I had to make another call to 444 to put the 10 pounds on the SIM.
  • Afterwards I went to the My3 web page received via the SMS above and activated the Internet Light 1GB add-on.
  • Very nice, works like a charm 🙂

Speedlondonoxford_street
Speeds in London’s busy Oxford street are quite o.k., about 1 MBit/s in downlink and 60 kbit/s in uplink. Not the best I’ve ever seen but it will do nicely. Thanks, 3!

The Dangers of Going SIM-Less

Dean Bubley over at the Disruptive Analysis Blog has published an interesting post about the advantages of going SIM-less for next generation connected mobile devices. In essence he argues that today, SIM cards lock users to a single operator and complicate using the device in other networks, locally or abroad. He comes to the conclusion that SIM-less mobile devices are better because users then have control which networks they want to use. While I agree with his arguments, I think there are many ways for operators to deal with SIM-less devices today. It is therefore by no means certain that a device without a SIM gives a greater choice to the user.

When I look at the status quo, SIM-less devices give users much less freedom of choice than devices with SIM cards. The best example are CDMA networks, mostly used in the U.S. Here, devices have no SIM cards and are locked by default to a single operator. Using the device with other networks is not possible and when roaming, users can not use a local SIM card to reduce their costs. Switching local operators is also not possible with the device since it can only be used in one network. And finally, mobile phones can only be bought directly from an operator, so there is no competition and hence prices are unlikely to be very competitive. This approach also gives mobile operators a great degree of freedom to lock handsets down by removing VoIP, Bluetooth and Wifi capabilities that have become very popular on devices which are not locked down to the operator. In short, such a SIM-less world is far from desirable.

So while I think Dean makes some important points I am actually quite happy that the GSM standard uses SIM cards. Here are some examples of what is possible if only the SIM card belongs to an operator while the mobile device belongs to the user:

  • Voice Competition: Germany, for example, has become a very competitive MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) market and prices for prepaid communication have come down over the past two years from 60 Euro cents a minute down to 9 cents or even less. MVNOs basically only sell a SIM card and users just put them into the phone they already have. If there is a better offer and the current MVNO does not adapt, his SIM card is quickly replaced. Great for competition!
  • Data Competition: The same applies for prepaid mobile data. If the network coverage is bad or if prices are not competitive, the device can be quickly used with another operator or network by simply exchanging the SIM card.
  • Roaming: When I go abroad I usually use a local SIM card because data charges when roaming are still ridiculously expensive. Granted, it is sometimes not convenient to get a local SIM card but if you stay abroad for more than just a day there is a quick return on investment.
  • Handset prices: Today I have several choices when I want to buy a new phone: I go to the operator to get a bundle, I go to an electronics store and get a bundle, or I go to one of many online stores and just get a phone. Then I go to the next supermarket, buy a SIM card and I am set. This has had a significant effect on handset prices. Let me give you a recent example: In operator shops, an N95 is currently available for 250 Euros if taken with a 24 month subscription with a basic fee between 10 and 20 Euros a month. I can get the same mobile with the same terms and conditions for 1 euro in most electronic stores today which are not related with the network operator. In addition, the phone is usually not locked down to an operator specific software version with crippeld VoIP and other niceties. And if I don’t want it with a SIM card at all I buy it for 450 euros but without a 10-20 euros a month fee and it becomes even cheaper if you calculate the costs over 2 years. There’s no way of doing that with a SIM-less device with the current model.

So in order for users to benefit from SIM-less devices, a number of additional things need to be in place:

  • Location of the certificate server: WiMAX devices are unlikely to use SIM cards from what I hear at the moment. Instead they will use built in or user loadable certificates. The important point is who issues those certificates. If they are issued by a mobile operator, then the user is stuck to one network. This is the same as the current CDMA approach. Therefore, I hope that there will also be certificates issued by an independent certificate authority. When establishing a connection the network would then have to verify the user’s credential with an external certificate authority.
  • Networks using external certificate servers: The best external certificate server is of no use if networks only use internal servers. Hopefully competition will prevent this scenario as most network operators are probably happy to get additional revenue from national and international roamers.

In practice I can see networks using both internal and external certificate servers. This would allow the operator to sell devices which are locked to his network and to his control while roaming in exchange for a device subsidy. At the same time users would have the freedom to buy a device with an "open" certificate they could use in any network. They would then have the choice to pay per use, similar to the hotspot model today, or to get a subscription with an operator without being locked in.

Summary

Going SIM-less with WiMAX and other systems is a double bladed sword. If authentication is not "open", we will end up in a situation similarly to what we can observe with CDMA operators today: Users and devices are locked to a single network instead of having a greater choice. While some operators would surely prefer a "closed" authentication solution I think it would do great harm not only to users but also to the industry as it reduces competition among network operators, keeps prices up, and reduces attractiveness for users to go wireless.

Wireless Now Accounts For A Third Of Austria’s Broadband Connections

Bad news for all of those who keep telling people that wireless broadband can’t compete with DSL and cable because networks couldn’t cope with the traffic: You are wrong! Arthur D. Little consulting published a study last week that last year 57% of new broadband connections were wireless (3.5G + WiMAX a bit I guess) compared to 36% of new connections via DSL and 7% cable.

In total 46% of broadband connections are now via DSL, 26% via cable and 28% wireless. As I am in in Austria from time to time and have a local SIM card for mobile broadband I think the reasons for this outright success are the following:

  • Very competitive pricing for wireless broadband
  • Prepaid offers. I for example have a prepaid SIM for 3.5G with 3GB worth of data which I can consume over 12 months. 1GB afterwards can be had 20 euros with a validity period of another 12 months. The same 20 euros buy 2 GBs with a validity period of 1 month. Even cheaper offers are available via postpaid.
  • So far pricing for DSL was very uncompetitive in Austria
  • All four wireless operators are advertising their broadband solutions heavily

I think these number show quite impressively that well designed 3.5G networks can cope with the load of broadband Internet access from a significant percentage of the population. I can confirm this myself as my wireless HSPA connection has always worked nice so far whenever I was in Austria. Therefore fears by some mobile network operators that their networks might be overloaded are unfunded, unless of course they have an under dimensioned network.

Also thoughts can be put at rest that wireless broadband is not profitable. With wireless voice minute prices down to 5 euro cents a minute in Austria and mobile broadband used heavily I haven’t heard anybody complain about losses.

Via heise.de news

Is O2 Lost in Translation?

It’s interesting and a bit frightening to see how different national subsidiaries of O2 say different things about the same topic at the same time. On January 14th, O2 U.K. reports the introduction of new data roaming charges in the second quarter 2008: For a monthly fee of €50 you get 50 MB worth of data while roaming. Nothing I would loose my breath over since for notebook use that is way too little for too way too much. The same press report says:

"The package is available now in Spain, the UK, the Czech Republic and
Ireland and will be introduced in Germany in the second quarter of 2008."

On the same day, O2 Germany also publishes a press report which says that in the second quarter of 2008, they will introduce a cap at €17.50 a day for international data roaming. Now this is quite interesting as it comes close to Vodafone’s websession offer and might even be better since it sounds like they are not limited to a single roaming partner per country. Thus, the user may just be able to pick the best available network while roaming. No word on the 50 for 50 offer though.

What I don’t quite understand is:

  • Why not now and only in the second quarter?
  • Why €50.- for 50 MB per month for customers in the U.K. and €17.50 cap a day for (unlimited?) use for customers in Germany?

Hm, second quarter…. Enough time to come up with highly entertaining T&C’s until then.

The Prepaid Wireless Internet Wiki is Evolving

As many of you know I am a frequent traveler in Europe and finding ways to stay connected while on the move has become sort of a passion. 2007 was definitely the year when prepaid SIM cards for accessing the Internet via GSM and UMTS networks became fashionable. At some point there were so many offers out there that it was difficult to keep track. So I started the Prepaid Wireless Internet Access Wiki to put down my knowledge and to invite others to do the same.

It has worked very well, the Wiki has been growing ever since. I even found some hot tips myself: France, not really on the afterburner in the mobile domain now has two prepaid Internet access offers and I am using one of them on a daily basis when I am in the country. And in Germany, my AldiTalk SIM card has been replaced by a Congstar SIM as the network operator makes all the difference. This is the power of the web! Sharing information and getting good tips for it in return. Thanks to all of you who keep the Wiki updated. Looking forward to the next tip!