OperaMini Doubles Users and Tripples Consumed Data in a Year

I am a huge fan of OperaMini and about a year ago, I reported on the usage statistics published by Opera over at their website. While they report their usage statistics once per month, I haven't been over in a while and I was quite possitively surprised when I compare their current report to that I have reported on a year ago. Here are the points I've taken away from the comparison:

  • Compared to a year ago, the active user base has increased from 11.9 million users worldwide to 20 million users. So it's almost doubled in a year.
  • Number of transcoded pages: 7.5 billion, up from 2.4 billion a year ago. so while the user base has doubled, consumption has trippled. Looks like the per person appetite is rising.
  • The amount of data sent to users: 122.00.000 MB during the month, that's almost 4x more than a year ago. So not only do users view more pages but the content per page is also growing. A year ago, I calculated their outgoing average data rate at around 100 MBit/s. At the current usage, their average outgoing data rate must now be close to 400 MBit/s. In addition, there's the traffic for fetching the full web page in the first place and then compressing it to those average 400 MBit/s output. It's difficult to say how much bandwidth that requires due to caching but I'd say its very significant as well.

From what I've heard, Opera has a number of regional data centers now in the US and China, so the overall load is split now. Still, the number is staggering.

For this post, let's do another rough guess: With 7.5 billion pages served a month, that's 250 million pages a day, or almost 2900 pages a second.

All very impressive!

T-Mobile: Probably Integrating Fixed and Mobile Branches Again

After Vodafone Germany has reversed its course last year and stopped the sale of its fixed line branch, T-Mobile is now also revising its pilar model. Current rumors are that with the the boss of the wirline business going towards finances, CEO Rene Oberman will use the opportunity and combine wireless and wireline under a common roof once more. Looks like another major operator gets itself into a position to explore the possibilities of Connected Home Services, i.e. services in the homes of users ranging from sensor networks, accessing audio and video libraries to remote controlling devices not only from devices in the home network but also from mobile devices while on the go. I've had many posts on this in the past two years, for more background info see for example here and here.

The US Discovers Prepaid

Here's a link to an interesting post in the New York times on the growing use of prepaid SIM cards in the US. Living (at least partly) in Germany, where prepaid SIMs are the norm rather than the exception and where they've had a big impact on pricing in the past couple of years, it's interesting to see how radically different the perception of prepaid still is in the US:

  • Hardly known
  • The article suggests most know them from gangsters in TV shows to avoid being wiretapped. Should they do this in practice, they are in for quite a surprise, one of those TV myths 🙂
  • Perceived as expensive, when you compare it to some countries in Europe. I can't remember when I last paid the equivalent of $50 a month for voice calls. At 9 cents a minute, or 4 cents in Austria, that's difficult to do.
  • But in the US, $50 a month seems to be cheap and the article states more people are turning to it to reduce their monthly costs.

So it looks like the old ways of doing wireless in the US are slowly changing. Good news, also for me personally, and I already put it to good use last year when I was in the US for a week with an AT&T prepaid SIM card for Internet access via my phone. There are rumors the option I used at the time has been discontinued since, but should that be true, maybe one of the other emerging prepaid offers has something similar for me next time I visit the US.

Now it would be nice if coverage was improved and charges for inbound calls to be abolished, in my eyes one of the main inhibitors of using prepaid with accurate per call billing instead of a monthly minutes bundle applied for both incoming and outgoing calls.

Maybe an upcoming business opportunity for retailers to sell SIM cards and phones separately via the web or otherwise?

2 Day LTE Services Course at the University of Oxford

Oxford-logo
Great News: On April 20 and 21st, Ajit Jaokar of Open Gardens and I will host a 2 day course on LTE Services at the University of Oxford's Department of Continuing Education!

Here’s the agenda:

  • New services based on enhanced capacity of the network
  • IP based business models
  • Rich voice applications
  • New role of devices to handle rich content and social networks
  • Social networks based on rich content like video
  • Services unique to LTE and the core network
  • Greater role for user generated content and for rich media
  • Unified communications and beyond 3G networks
  • Fixed mobile integration – leveraging enhanced networks and learning from past mistakes
  • Integrated networks and connecting back to home networks
  • Network elements: Femtocells vs Wi-Fi in the home gateway and services based on these elements
  • Wireless sensor networks at home and their role and opportunity in an overall beyond 3G network

I am very happy to be part of this and it will be great to look at these topics from our two different angles. We've also put together a questionnaire to see what your angle is on this topic. If you have a minute and are interested, we'd be happy to get your feedback. We'll share the result with those who leave their e-mail address and of course with all course participants. Needless to say that all responses are treated confidentially.

So, if I have caught your interest, head over to the course's web site for the details. During this week, there’s also the yearly Forum Oxford Future Telecommunication Conference. More about that in an extra post once the details are sorted out.

Nokia and Mobile Home Services

You might remember one or the other of my posts in the past where I've been speculating about mobile home services being an interesting field for mobile network operators with both fixed and mobile access networks. They are in control over both types of access and in addition sell mobile devices as well. In other words, they are in a perfect place to offer services that work both at home and on the mobile device while being away. Not many other players in the industry can do the same in this space. Now, Nokia wants to become active in this domain as well and has started development on what they call "Smart Home Solutions".

Basically the smart home solution is a home gateway with a Wi-Fi access point, built in storage and software to access home network sensors to for example control the room temperature, security systems, low-energy walls, programmable thermostats, self-adjusting curtains, configurable set-top boxes, self-operating yard lights, etc. From the outside, the gateway is accessed via a mobile devices' built in web browser. The ideas have been floating around for quite some time now and I agree with Nokia that all pieces have now pretty much fallen into place to make it finally work.

Nokia knows they can't do it on their own so they position it as an open solution and are looking for partners. According to their website they have their first partner for the project with RWE, one of the big German power companies that are also active in the Internet business. Let's see if they will also find an interested mobile operator over time to kickstart this project. I'll keep watching. More technical details on their web site.

MWC: Roundup

Another Mobile World Congress has come to an end. Thursday is usually a bit strange as everyone is alreday quite tired and just waits for the closing bell to ring. To my surprise, my Thursday was quite different.

In the morning, I met with Ajit Jaokar of Open Gardens / Futuretext to prepare for our upcoming course on LTE Services at Oxford University. Lots of great energy flowing in that session and I went out in a very positive mood. More about that soon in a separate post.

Next I went to the Next Generation Mobile Network Presentation stream to listen to some network centric presentations. Julius Robson reported on the progress of the LTE/SAE Trial Initiative, which I already reported on in one of the first MWC posts. Great presentation, Julius, it’s good to see LTE making progress.

China Mobile had a presentation on common FDD and TDD chipsets for LTE, so like me, they also think that a common chipset, i.e. mobile devices being able to do both FDD and TDD are vital for TDD to become a success.

As usual there is also the odd presentation from a North American carrier bashing on the vendors and the users alike, calling European network operators stupid for their extensive 3G network rollouts and sale of prepaid SIM cards for voice and data. I wonder if they will ever wake up!?

Good that most other operators have quite a different view on that and out of the many other presentations I especially liked Seizo Onoe’s presentation for NTT DoCoMo on Deployment and Realities of LTE. The most interesting chart for me was how DoCoMo plans to deploy LTE. It seems that they already have a deployment in which the UMTS radio module sits on the mast and is connected via a fiber cable to the digital module of the UMTS base station. For LTE, they will reuse the existing antennas and hook their digital LTE module into the fiber link that is already in place. Quite cost effective. In the Q&A the presenter was asked by a representative of T-Mobile (who also push very hard for LTE and don’t want to invest much more into the HSPA network) what he thought of HSPA+. Seizo Onoe seems to be one of the “fathers” of LTE, if one can say so, so he was of course not quite in favour of HSPA+ and said with a smile on his face that he doesn’t like it, it makes things too complicated in the mobile devices and one should go to LTE straight away. I had to smile as well, that was brought over very well. But no matter, HSPA+ will go into handsets anyway, that’s my opinion.

On into the afternoon, I had some more meetings with companies doing testing equipment and I learnt a great deal about how the optic interface between the LTE radio module and the digital part, called CPRI, will be used by maeasurement and testing companies to simulate mobile devices to stress test the base stations and the network in general.

And finally, I went to Wiley’s again to pick up a book about wireless to read on the way home and to say good bye. More about that in a separate blog post as well.

There we go, another Mobile World Congress has closed its gates. Not the most splendid one I have seen but I hugely enjoyed it again, have learnt many new things and spoke to lots of people enthusiastic about what they are doing. What else can one ask for?

MWC: Author Session, Television and More

It’s Thursday morning and before I head of for the final day of the Mobile World Congress, here’s what happened yesterday.

In the morning I went to see a number of companies doing measurement and testing equipment for LTE networks. While in UMTS, a lot of info can be extracted from the Iub interface between the base station and the radio network controler, this is no longer possible with LTE as all functionality has been put into the base station. So other innovative ideas are required to analyze and debug the radio access network in the future. I’ve seen lots of interesting approaches and I am sure the hearts of many engineers while beat faster when they get one of these new testers into their hands.

The highlight for me on Wednesday was of course my author session at the Wiley booth in hall 2 to promote the launch of my new book. Lots of people came by to say hello, to have a chat, to see what is going on and to pick up a copy. At the end of the session we were sold out. Thanks to all who stopped by it was very nice meeting you and to see the different angles you have on the industry.

Later in the afternoon I went to see TV moderator Guy Daniels at the TelecomTV studio to see what he thinks of this years MWC and the state of the industry. It was good to see them being in Barcelona again in full force pumping out lots of great interviews that one could watch live, over one of the huge video walls at the Fira, and as a live stream on the Internet on the TelecomTV.com homepage. This year, the program was also broadcast via DVB-H, so people lucky enough to have a Nokia N96 or other DVB-H capable handset could watch this and a number of other channels for free. I also had a chance to get a backstage look at the TV equipment used for producing the shows, including the 10 Terrabyte disk array that stores the week’s production.

One thing I didn’t get to see was a demo of Nokia’s Home Control hard and software which seems to have been cancled at the last moment. A bit dissapointing, I was very much looking forward to that.

After the Symbian Foundation Party on Monday and the great dinner reception of Ip.Access on Tuesday I didn’t really get enough sleep so I opted for something more quiet and with less people last night. The food was good and the amount of sleep a bit more so there is enough energy left for the final day at the Fira.

You might have noticed I have not written anything about new mobile phones having been announced this weeks. Well, they have just not really been my prime focus. Too many other things to see here that can’t easily be seen on the web. Any suggestions from your side which mobiles I should look at before the Congress closes this year?

MWC: 14 MBit/s HSPA and other bits and pieces

Day 3 at the Mobile World Congress and my impression is that it is a little bit less busy than in the days before. People also start to be a bit tired, long hours at the congress and activites in the evening leave their marks. Anyway, so here are some of the things I have seen today:

Last year it was only Nortel and LG who where showing a live and over the air LTE demo. This year, I was expecting more companies to do the same. To my surprise this was not the case. Hall 8 is full of LTE demos but no real over the air and no real mobile devices or prototpyes are shown except for LG and Nortel. What’s going on!? I am puzzled. Good to see that the size of the mobile device prototypes have shrunk from desktop PC size down to about twice the size of a typical 3G dongle today. At least at the LG booth. These were no mockups but were used for the demos.

The GSMA and Ericsson showed the evolution of HSPA in hall 2 and I was shown an HSPA live air demo with a throughput of 14 MBit/s with a 3G USB stick with a Telstra branding. It said 21 on the top which probably stands for 21 MBit/s, which I think is the highest speed with 64 QAM without MIMO. I couldn’t see where the antenna was hidden but it was probably quite nearby. In all fairness one has to say that at the Congress pretty much all antennas are nearby to give excellent coverage as reported earlier.

Another thing that I checked out in more details is who is doing the different layers of the protocol stack. I know that the area is very fractured and lots of smaller companies are working in this space. I talked a bit with a representative of MimoOn who are doing layer 1 to 3 LTE protocol stacks for chipsets from PicoChip and TI. They had good demos what each layer of the protocol stack does and how they can be separated. While some companies lincense their complete stack, others implement some of the layers on their own and just want one or the other from them. Pretty much a mix and match game. So for a product like a femtocell, silicon of vendor x is used, the protocol stack from y and z and the femotcell vendor then might put the rest of the protocol stack on top itself plus all the femto applications and there are probably partnerships for that as well. And finally the femto cells get sold to an even bigger company which then sells it under their own brand. Incredible how many companies are involved.

And finally for this post, I’ve spoken to a couple of people about dual mode TDD / FDD handsets and if they think this will happen. All of them said they weren’t sure and that it is a quite complicated thing to do. They pretty much all said “Let’s see how things develop”.

MWC: Femtos at the Fira

Network capacity and access to devices in the home from mobile devices are going to be important features in the near future. Femtocells are an interesting solution to these challenges and ip.access has shown some interesting solutions in the past on other tradeshows which I could only watch so far on Youtube. So at this year’s MWC it was great to finally meet some people I’ve been in contact with at ip.access over time for the first time and to take a look at their femto solution first hand.

It’s so simple these days to get a demo up and running at the Mobile World Congress compared to the days when you needed E-1’s and other non standard links to equipment located somewhere else. Today, a simple Internet link does the job, inexpensive even at trade shows compared to dedicated E-1 lines. Ip.access made good use of it and had a number of live femtocells at their booth, connected to their femto controller back in Cambridge in the UK via an Internet connection in exactly the same way one would do at home. Interesting to see that they have partnered with Cisco for their first femto deployments, that’s certainly going to raise awareness.

In retrospect it seems a bit odd that I didn’t ask them if I could do a voice call on their femto, but I just believe that voice calls work, it’s the core feature. Instead, I was much more interested how mobile devices can be included in the home network via the femto cell to interact with the video and music library, the television, act as a remote control, etc. I’ve seen it in a Youtube video before but seeing it live is always different. They wouldn’t exactly tell me how the mobile is included in the local network, thus bypassing the operators network, but after seeing the demo I think I have a fair idea. Thanks for that, very interesting!

In addition, they also showed an interesting Facebook plugin where users can leave messages for a femto user which are delivered by SMS when the user’s mobile finds the femto cell at home or at the office and performs a location update procedure. Great integration of social networking. The scenario can be expanded to things like getting a message when the children arrive at home after school or automated reminders to water the plants, something that would help me a great deal, as my plants never survive very long.

We continued the conversation in the evening at Casa Batlo at their dinner party and it was great to meet more people working on the technology and share their enthusiasm for their product and wireless in general. Thanks very much for that! During the evening, I was asked when in my opinion femtos will be launched for the mass market. Obviously, the first standalone femtos are very close to market readiness, the Cisco femtos at the booth are a clear indication for that. For a real mass audience, I think it will take a bit more as I see an integrated Femto/Wifi/DSL/Home Gateway box with applications such as IPTV and streaming server as an ideal platform to attract interest from consumers beyond voice coverage enhancements.

So, what do you think?

MWC: Network in a Box at R&S

When you are used that a mobile network consisting of lots of boxes in a huge data center it's a strange feeling when you go to a measurement and testing company like Rohde and Schwarz and you find a whole network from the base station antenna to the servers in the core network condensed in a single box sitting on the table. I've seen devices like this in the past in some labs but never had the time to take a closer look. This year at the Mobile World Congress, I decided to pay Rohde and Schwarz a visit to have a closer look.

The level of detail that can be analyzed is breathtaking. It starts at the physical layer where the tester can veryify that the mobile to be tested modulates the signal correctly and goes up to messaging to the UMTS SGSN or LTE SGW for things like network attach, bearer setup, etc. The tester can even run of the shelf server programs like VLC so video streaming and other sorts of throuput tests can be made with real applications on top.

New network technologies such as LTE are developed step by step, usually starting at the physical layer. So far, I always wondered how one could already test some layers when the software for others has not yet been written. After the demo at the booth I have a much better idea of how that works in practice. So in the first stages, when only layer 1 and parts of layer 2 exists, you pretend on both sides that a bearer, IP address, etc. have previously been negotiated and set those to fixed values. After that you just pump IP packets over the interface to test mobile behavior, modulation, use of sub-channels, etc. Everyhting automated with testcases against the 3GPP test specifications of course. As the protocol stack evolves, more and more components can be included in the test.

Another thing I discovered at the R&S booth was a test environment for network based A-GPS. While the Nokia A-GPS in my N95 connects to a Nokia server on the Internet to download ephemeris information to kick-start the GPRS chip, there is also a network based variant to download the information from the base station. I was not aware that this was going forward but since R&S has a tester that simulates it and a public mobile that uses it, some operators and mobile manufacturers seem to implement it. I need to have a closer look and dig a bit once I am back from MWC.

And finally, I was also shown their mobile testers to debug live networks. Depending on what a network operator or other interested party is prepared to spend, they have mobiles with test and monitoring software (e.g. on an N95) up to boxes that record the complete UMTS band and decode a carrier down to the physical layer. Makes my mouth water.

Thanks for the excellent tour, I thoroughly enjoyed it!